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How random are talent offers?

Julio

Well-Known Member
Joined
Apr 13, 2017
Messages
633
I'm curious. I'm not convinced that talents are completely random. I was going for several 5/5 talents last week and didn't stop until I had them.

It seemed to me that once I had spent around 3,000 - 3,500 in gold, that the refreshes were much more likely to be a 5/5 talent (maybe not the one I wanted, but still a 5/5).

I wish I had recorded the talents offered as I refreshed. It would be very interesting to get some real data on players' experiences trying to get a perfect talent.

My theory is that for the first 2,000 in gold you are far more likely to get non-perfect talents, i.e. less than 5/5 and that once you reach somewhere around 3-3,500 on gold you are more likely to get a perfect 5/5 talent.

Any constructive data driven feedback would be appreciated.
 

Serge

Well-Known Member
Joined
Apr 13, 2017
Messages
240
They're definitely not random lol

I think that's been proven by the fact that people who used to use the exploit for talents would get the exact same set of talents every time they rolled (some will know what I mean some wont)

Either way, they definitely aren't 'truly' random
 

Lars

New Member
Joined
May 4, 2017
Messages
2
I've got three 5/5 talents and spent like 500 gold on it. I do believe they are completely random.

I got +20% RPG Soldier damage twice, and +10% victory reward once.
 

Julio

Well-Known Member
Joined
Apr 13, 2017
Messages
633
I've got three 5/5 talents and spent like 500 gold on it. I do believe they are completely random.

I got +20% RPG Soldier damage twice, and +10% victory reward once.
Were you going after specific talents or one's that seemed acceptable?
 

Bako Bullyz

Banned
Joined
Apr 9, 2017
Messages
335
It's done on purpose so you can waste ur gold and buy more. Who wants 4% wood production? Lol
 

CRABNUTZ

Well-Known Member
Joined
Apr 7, 2017
Messages
706
@Julio , whether they're random or not, I've stated several times in these forums and on line chat groups that the average perfect talent will cost around 3500 gold under the current 50 gold max reset format.

Sometimes it's the first or second roll, sometimes its the 120th roll. It averages out to 3500 gold per perfect talent when it's all said and done.
 

Julio

Well-Known Member
Joined
Apr 13, 2017
Messages
633
@Julio , whether they're random or not, I've stated several times in these forums and on line chat groups that the average perfect talent will cost around 3500 gold under the current 50 gold max reset format.

Sometimes it's the first or second roll, sometimes its the 120th roll. It averages out to 3500 gold per perfect talent when it's all said and done.
Yes, I'm sure your data is accurate. Just wondering how "fixed" the system is. Curious...
 

CRABNUTZ

Well-Known Member
Joined
Apr 7, 2017
Messages
706
Yes, I'm sure your data is accurate. Just wondering how "fixed" the system is. Curious...
A developer would be the only one that could answer that question, bud. Perhaps posing your question to the in game support would garner the fastest answer.
 

Shank

Active Member
Joined
May 16, 2017
Messages
155
Yes, I'm sure your data is accurate. Just wondering how "fixed" the system is. Curious...
As @CRABNUTZ said, it averages out.

I got 5/5 missile on Diego my first roll a few days ago, and the next day a guy in my cartel did too.

I've also spent 5k gold to get a perfect talent as well.

I won't disagree that it's usually after 3000 gold that you start getting good stuff most of the time.
 

Julio

Well-Known Member
Joined
Apr 13, 2017
Messages
633
A developer would be the only one that could answer that question, bud. Perhaps posing your question to the in game support would garner the fastest answer.

Haha. i doubt it would be fast, or accurate...
 

Julio

Well-Known Member
Joined
Apr 13, 2017
Messages
633
As a service to my fellow forum members, i decided to collect some empirical data on talents to help determine their level of randomness.

I decided to follow @CRABNUTZ 's advice and continue to roll until I received the 5/5 talent I was looking for (in this case 5/5 Missile Damage).

I repeated this experiment 5 times (feel free to PayPal me cash if you would like additional data sets).

It took me 299 rolls in total to obtain the five talents. This is an average of 60 rolls per talent or 3,000 gold under the current 50 gold refresh price. This is slightly less than @CRABNUTZ 's estimate of 3,500 gold. I received the perfect talent in:

Try 1: 68 rolls
Try 2: 30 rolls
Try 3: 32 rolls
Try 4: 82 rolls
Try 5: 87 rolls

My theory before I started was that talents received earlier in a string of rolls were more likely to be lower level and as the rolls continued to be made, the chances of obtaining a perfect talents would increase.

For purposes of quantifying the data, I grouped rolls into sets of 10 (first ten rolls, then second ten, etc. ). Here is the data I collected:

Rolls 1-10 (50 rolls)
1/5 Talent 30%
2/5 Talent 22%
3/5 Talent 24%
4/5 Talent 20%
5/5 Talent 4%

Rolls 11-21 (50 rolls)
1/5 Talent 24%
2/5 Talent 16%
3/5 Talent 32%
4/5 Talent 22%
5/5 Talent 6%


Rolls 21-30 (50 rolls)
1/5 Talent 28%
2/5 Talent 28%
3/5 Talent 14%
4/5 Talent 20%
5/5 Talent 10%

Rolls 31-40 (32 rolls)
1/5 Talent 25%
2/5 Talent 22%
3/5 Talent 28%
4/5 Talent 12.5%
5/5 Talent 12.5%

Rolls 41-50 (30 rolls)
1/5 Talent 7%
2/5 Talent 27%
3/5 Talent 33%
4/5 Talent 23%
5/5 Talent 10%

Rolls 51-60 (30 rolls)
1/5 Talent 27%
2/5 Talent 37%
3/5 Talent 17%
4/5 Talent 10%
5/5 Talent 10%

Rolls 61-70 (20 rolls)
1/5 Talent 11%
2/5 Talent 18%
3/5 Talent 14%
4/5 Talent 46%
5/5 Talent 11%

Rolls 71-80 (20 rolls)
1/5 Talent 25%
2/5 Talent 5%
3/5 Talent 20%
4/5 Talent 20%
5/5 Talent 30%


Rolls 81-90 (9 rolls)
1/5 Talent 0%
2/5 Talent 11%
3/5 Talent 22%
4/5 Talent 0%
5/5 Talent 66%

Even though the above data is from a lot of rolls, the sample size is still rather small to draw foregone conclusions. Also, the fact that I stopped gathering data once I hit a specific 5/5 Talent skews the data as well. And, the sample sizes for the latter groups of 10 are small and a couple of different results would paint a different picture.

Now, with those disclosures out of the way, as I look at the data, there certainly seems to be an increased likelihood of higher level talents as you progress through the rolls with a significant shift around the 60 roll mark.

The actual talents offered appear to be fairly random (i.e RPG Health, Firebomb damage, etc.).

That being said, the other two premium talents that I would want (Flash and Firebomb Damage) were received only once each during these rolls. I received 5/5 Flash on Try 2 on my 80th roll (#82 was 5/5 Missile). I received 5/5 Firebomb on Try 5 on my 56th roll (#87 was 5/5 Missile).

I hope this helps. If i make another talent run I might update my results.
 
Last edited:

CRABNUTZ

Well-Known Member
Joined
Apr 7, 2017
Messages
706
Julio!

Thank you for taking the time to put together this data! It helps to reinforce what I've been saying all along:)
 

Julio

Well-Known Member
Joined
Apr 13, 2017
Messages
633
Bump based on other thread discussion regarding randomness of talents.
 

GHI1968

Active Member
Joined
Apr 11, 2017
Messages
342
Tried for 2 better talents at the weekend, got 2 x 4 star ones for maybe 300 gold in total so not too bad but didn't keep going for 5 star ones.
 
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